Fraser's birthday

[inmyriadbits]

*grumble* I'm grumpy. I think it's a combination of factors (having to leave Paris, returning to the deathly boredom of biology lecture, being forced to move out of my room mid-semester, etc). So instead of making a post about Paris, I'm going to post some really nerdy Due South meta/research stuff that has been languishing on my computer for the last few weeks.

So, I started thinking about Fraser's birthday. Since we have no canon references to his actual birthday, I was wondering if I could narrow it down at all. There's a good post here already discussing the characters' ages, but I'm more interested in the time of year he was born than which year he was born.


I based a lot of my guess-work on the following conversation from 3.01 "Burning Down The House":


Bob: Your mother and I had a cabin north of Clyde River. Burned right to the ground. A kerosene error. My fault. Your mother and I slept in an igloo for 4 months while I rebuilt it. The longest time we spent together.
Fraser: I didn't know that.
Bob: Well you weren't born yet, son.
Fraser: Oh.
Bob: In fact, all that time spent in that igloo sort of started the ball rolling, conceptionally speaking...

(from here)


My first step was to find out about weather conditions in Clyde River. The lovely Canadian government was happy to help out with Canadian Climate Normals 1971-2000--weather data from a station just outside Clyde River, Nunavut. I've plotted the location of this weather station here; you can zoom in to see where the station is relative to Clyde River and zoom out to see how ridiculously far north it is. :) I'd say this station's data would make a good estimate for weather conditions at the Frasers' cabin and igloo, since much farther "north of Clyde River" would've put Bob and Caroline in Greenland.

This becomes relevant to a discussion of igloo integrity. My guess (I have no practical knowledge of igloo construction; please let me know if you do and can contribute) is that in warmer months, an igloo would not remain sturdy enough to live in, nor would materials be available with which to build. [ETA 04/06/2007: My thanks go to thespatz, who provided a link to some igloo-building experiments that seem to support my theory that an igloo would not do well in above-freezing temps.] With that in mind, here are some statistics on the frequency of below-freezing temperatures, by month.

Number of Days with Maximum Temperature <= 0 °C:
Jan: 30.9
Feb: 28.2
Mar: 31
Apr: 29.8
May: 25.6
Jun: 4.7
Jul: 0
Aug: 0.04
Sep: 7.2
Oct: 27.7
Nov: 29.9
Dec: 30.8

Based on this data, I would guess that it is not likely an igloo could stick around in June/July/August/September. If Bob and Caroline lived in an igloo for four months, the latest Bob could've built it was the beginning of February; it would definitely start melting in June. The very earliest he could have built it is October, assuming materials to build with (i.e., snow and ice) became available.

Now, let us turn once again to the scant information of canon:

Bob: Close the door, son. Anyone would think you were born in a barn.
Fraser: I was.
Bob: Oh. That's true enough.

(from here)

This bit is was more about the birds and the bees than weather patterns. According to Wikipedia's entry on premature birth (yes, I wimped out and used Wiki; all the pink motherhood websites that popped up in Google scared me), 40 weeks is the average length of gestation. It adds that "Infants under 32 weeks typically do not produce enough surfactant in their lungs to enable them to breathe on their own," and "Infants born more than 3 weeks prior to 40 weeks show physical signs of their prematurity and may develop other problems as well."

If Fraser was born in a barn, he would not have had access to much medical care. I will assume that he had to be born at least 32 weeks after conception (a definite cut-off point, since neither surfactant nor an incubator would be available in a barn). Since Fraser is a healthy horse of a man and Caroline did not die in childbirth, it is more likely he was born after 37 weeks; he shows no health problems/size issues and considering poor medical care at birth, I doubt he was premature. Pregnancy usually lasts no more than 42 weeks.

This is somewhat speculative on my part, but I think that Bob not claiming but merely guessing that Fraser was conceived during those four months, conception would've occurred within the last few weeks of the four months, or in whatever short time Bob was still around afterward. Caroline would've noticed she was pregnant if the conception was before that, and Bob's story would have been about morning sickness in an igloo instead. I'm guessing Bob left soon after building the cabin, which is why he isn't sure when exactly Caroline found out she was pregnant--she would've discovered it while he was gone. However, it is possible that Bob was merely being coy, so I have accounted for all options.

Keep in mind that I am searching for a range of dates, so I approached the problem by finding the absolute earliest and latest scenarios, regardless of probability.


Early Version:

Igloo is built October 1st.

1) If Benton was conceived immediately, June 17 is 37 weeks later, and July 22 is 42 weeks.
2) If he was conceived 4 weeks before the end of the 4 months living in the igloo (conceived January 3), September 19 is 37 weeks and October 24 is 42 weeks.
3) If he was conceived at the very last possible moment at the end of four months, the day Bob left (January 31), October 17 is 37 weeks and November 21 is 42 weeks.

This gives us an early range of June 17 to November 21 for possible birthdays.


Late Version

Igloo is built February 1st.

1) If Benton was conceived immediately, October 18 is 37 weeks later, and November 22 is 42 weeks.
2) If he was conceived 4 weeks before the end of the 4 months (conceived May 4), January 18 is 37 weeks and February 22 is 42 weeks.
3) If he was conceived the day Bob left (June 1), February 15 is 37 weeks and March 22 is 42 weeks.

This gives us a late range of October 18 to March 22.


Thus, the absolute maximum range (based solely on when the igloo could exist) is June 17 (conception when first possibly built, 37 weeks gestation) to March 22 (conception on last day, 42 weeks gestation). An easier way to look at it is that Fraser's birthday is definitely not between March 22 and June 17.

That's an awfully big chunk of time, and some premises are unlikely. To narrow it down to a likelier range, based on a) Bob's inspecific knowledge suggesting a later conception and b) optimal gestation period of 40 weeks, we get October 10 to March 8. So, let's say the range is late October to mid-February, because an igloo in October or June is kinda pushing it.

I prefer the late version, because it seems more likely that Bob could build an igloo and a cabin during that time (the igloo because he would have materials after it snowed; the cabin because he's more likely to have missed the worst of winter by then), so I'm going to give the later months more weight.


In Summation:

All possible months of Fraser's birth: June (17th to end), July, August, September, October, November, December, January, February, March (1st to 22nd)

Likely months of Fraser's birth: October, November, December, January, February

Most likely months of Fraser's birth: November, *December, *January, *February

***

Okay, so then I started just screwing around. I thought it would be fun to have some completely unscientific astrological data tossed into the mix. I pulled these sun sign characteristics (strengths/weaknesses for all, plus whatever points I found pertinent in the longer profile) from an astrology site to which I've now lost the link.


Libra (Sep 23-Oct 22):
Diplomatic and urbane
Romantic and charming
Easygoing and sociable
Idealistic and peaceable
Indecisive and changeable
Gullible and easily infuenced
Flirtatious and self-indulgent
--good critical faculty and are able to stand back and look impartially at matters which call for an impartial judgment
--Libra governs the lumbar region, lower back and kidneys. Its subjects must beware of weaknesses in the back...


Scorpio (Oct 23-Nov 22):
Determined and forceful
Emotional and intuitive
Powerful and passionate
Exciting and magnetic
Jealous and resentful
Compulsive and obsessive
Secretive and obstinate
--The color of choice for Scorpio is dark red to maroon
--Likes: truth, hidden causes, being involved, work that is meaningful, being persuasive
--Dislikes: being given only surface data, taken advantage of, demeaning jobs, shallow relationships, flattery and flattering


Sagittarius (Nov 23-Dec 22):
Optimistic and freedom-loving
Jovial and good-humored
Honest and straightforward
Intellectual and philosophical
Blindly optimistic and careless
Irresponsible and superficial
Tactless and restless
--Their strongly idealistic natures can also suffer many disappointments without being affected. They are honorable, honest, trustworthy, truthful, generous and sincere, with a passion for justice. They are usually on the side of the underdog in society they will fight for any cause they believe to be just, and are prepared to be rebellious. They balance loyalty with independence.
--Sagittarians are usually modest and are often religious, with a strong sense of morality, though they tend to overemphasize the ethical codes they follow and worship beliefs about God rather than God Himself. This means that, negatively, they regard rigid, unloving, intolerant adherence to ritual and conventional codes as more important than the truths they symbolize or embody.
--They have both profound and widely ranging minds, equipped with foresight and good judgement, and they can be witty conversationalists. They love to initiate new projects (they make excellent researchers) and have an urge to understand conceptions that are new to them. They think rapidly, are intuitive and often original, but are better at adapting than inventing and are at their best when working with colleagues of other types of character that compliment their own. They are strong-willed and good at organizing, a combination that gives them the ability to bring any project they undertake to a successful conclusion. Their generosity can be balanced by their extreme care at handling their resources.
--The law and politics also suit them, as does public service. Travel and exploration naturally appeal to such restless souls and, if their opportunities are limited, they may find something of travel and change of scene in the armed forces or through working as a travelling salesman. Others may make fine musicians and, in the days before automobiles, they were said to be successful at horse trading and all activities, including sporting ones, concerning horses.


Capricorn (Dec 23-Jan 21):
Practical and prudent
Ambitious and disciplined
Patient and careful
Humorous and reserved
Pessimistic and fatalistic
Miserly and grudging
--capable of persisting for as long as is necessary to accomplish a goal they have set for themselves
--an interest in the occult which persists in spite of their naturally skeptical turn of mind ["Mask" and "Mojo Rising," anyone? Not to mention his interest in Inuit legend...]
--casual acquaintances they will treat with diplomacy, tact and, above all, reticence. They make few good friends but are intensely loyal to those they do make.


Aquarius (Jan 22-Feb 20):
Friendly and humanitarian
Honest and loyal
Original and inventive
Independent and intellectual
Intractable and contrary
Perverse and unpredictable
Unemotional and detached
--Among the faults to which they are liable are fanatical eccentricity, wayward egotism, excessive detachment and an inclination to retreat from life and society, and a tendency to be extremely dogmatic in their opinions.


Pisces (Feb 21-Mar 19):
Imaginative and sensitive
Compassionate and kind
Selfless and unworldly
Intuitive and sympathetic
Escapist and idealistic
Secretive and vague
Weak-willed and easily led


Bizarrely enough, the astrology stuff works well with the scientific/logical stuff; the descriptions that sound most like Fraser (Sagittarius, Capricorn, and Aquarius, IMO) fall November 23 to February 20, well within the likely range. *cue Twilight Zone theme*

***

ETA 03/23/2007: Thanks to joandarck, who pointed out this exchange in "I Coulda Been A Defendant:

Woman In Convertible: Don't tell me you're Capricorn.
Fraser: Sorry, ma'am, no. Canadian.

(from here)

This means we can rule out December 23 to January 21 for possible birth dates.

the_antichris and vienna_waits also brought up Bob's journal entry from the pilot, dated Jan 10, 1969 in the pilot. Here's the quote:

Bob V.O.: Ten January, nineteen sixty nine. I tracked McClay up through Chilkat Pass. I found him at the top half a mile from the border. His ankle was broken, his ammunition spent. He just sat staring at the horizon. I took his rifle without a struggle. All he said was, 'Don't tell my son' and then he jumped. The man was falling to his death and all he cared about was how his son would remember him. I buried him there this morning. I'll tell Gerard he got away from me. The last time I saw Ben he was barely tall enough to reach my belt. When I said goodbye, he shook my hand. Never a tear nor a complaint. Seven years old and he's already a stronger man than I'll ever be. Someday I'll tell him.

(from here)

The really cool thing is, used together, these two canonical references give us a definite birth year for Fraser. If he was seven on January 10, 1969, his seventh birthday was either in the first ten days of January or some time after January 11th in 1968. However, since we know that he's not a Capricorn, he wasn't born December 23 through January 21, which means his seventh birthday wasn't in the first few days of 1969. This means his seventh birthday was in 1968, which means he was definitely born in 1961.

***

ETA 12/17/2008: According to primroseburrows, the generally accepted cutoff to be considered full-term is 36 weeks rather than 37 weeks. This pushes the earliest date to June 10th rather than the 17th.

***

In Summation -- Adjusted Version:
(current 12/17/2008)

All possible dates of Fraser's birth: June (10th to 30th), July, August, September, October, November, December (1st to 22nd), January (22nd to 31st), February, March (1st to 22nd)

Likely dates: October, November, December (1st to 22nd), January (22nd to 31st), February

Most likely dates: November, *December (1st to 22nd), *January (22nd to 31st), *February

All dates assumed to be in 1961.

Comments

[malnpudl.livejournal.com]

Interesting post. Thanks for sharing all your research. :-)

And I'll have to give some thought to the astrological question. I'm used to thinking of Sagittarians as far more tactless and carelessly outspoken than Fraser -- good-natured, impulsive people who speak before they think.

Huh. Fun to think about, anyway. :-)

[inmyriadbits.livejournal.com]

You're quite welcome for the research. I'm glad you enjoyed it!

Every time I look at the descriptions, I have a different (amateur) opinion on which sign is Fraser's. (Aquarius, Scorpio, and Sagittarius are my current favorites, in that order.) :D IMO, Pisces and Libra are unlikely, but all the sun signs that occurred the "Likely months" category were included. joandarck offered the handy detail that Fraser says he's definitely not a Capricorn in "I Coulda Been A Defendant," though. It's more complicated by the fact that I narrowed it down to likely months before doing the astrology stuff, so really it's possible he's Gemini, Cancer, Leo, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, Sagittarius, Aquarius, Pisces, or even Aries (3-day window on that one). I just think Gemini/Cancer/Leo/Virgo/Aries are less likely, but the process by which I eliminated certain months is open to argument.

Actually, the Capricorn detail (courtesy of joandarck) in combination with date of the journal entry from the pilot about the seven year old Fraser (thanks to the_antichris and vienna_waits) is very helpful. Since we know that he wasn't born Dec 23-Jan 21, and the entry is dated Jan 10, 1969, then we now know that he didn't turn seven in the first ten days of 1969, which means he did turn seven some time in 1968, which means we can definitely say that Fraser's birth year is 1961. Cool!

I'm having so much fun with this. *is giant nerd*

[aukestrel.livejournal.com]

My top three would be Aquarius/Scorpio and Virgo. I'm glad to hear there's no canonical evidence for Cap, because, um, no way. But to me he seems way too organised and... self sufficient to be a Sag, and he doesn't seem to like people as much as Sags generally do. I mean, he doesn't dislike people, but he's quite happy being on his own. He's not really a fire sign to me. I'd say maybe Scorp w/ Aq or Virgo Asc, or Aq w/ Scorp Moon and maybe Virgo Asc. Or even a Sag asc, which could possibly account for some of the similarities you point out above (OTOH, I am not sure that the above reading of a Sag is one I'd necessarily agree with either).

Oh, and he's too honest to be a Pisces. *g* They are dual fish and they like to SWIM AWAY FROM TROUBLE.

[inmyriadbits.livejournal.com]

All those sound good to me. :) I don't really have as much of a problem with Fraser being a Sag, because I do think he needs people; he's just trained himself to live without them because he keeps being left behind. And he's devoted his life to helping people--just think of the bit in "Eclipse" when he reels off his reasons for doing what they do. Even though he's used to standing apart, everything he does is connected to people and community. *shrugs* Anyway, we'll never know for sure. :)

How do you know so much about astrology, out of curiosity? Is it just a hobby, or something more?

Yeah, I'm almost positive he's not a Pisces. I'm a Pisces, and he's just--not. Hmm...now I'm wondering about Ray's sign. Unfortunately, we know even less about his birthday than about Fraser's. I'd say he's probably a water sign, though. Cancer sounds very Ray K to me.

[aukestrel.livejournal.com]

I ran a couple different "reverse" horoscopes for him in early winter 1961 and as you can see, there are various ways to interpret him. I did tend to place his birth in central/eastern NWT (now Nunavut) because all the places Bob mentions in his journals tend to be eastern Canada/Hudson's Bay, whereas Fraser tends to be western NWT/Yukon when he talks about places.

Version A

for Benton Fraser (male)
born on 6 Nov 1961 local time 1:00 pm
in Yellowknife, NT (CAN) U.T. 20:00
114w21, 62n27 sid. time 15:25:46

Sun in Scorpio, Moon in Libra

This astrological position suggests harmony between the personality, under the influence of the air sign Libra, and the individuality, influenced by the water sign Scorpio. While you appear easy-going and affable, many of your feelings and thoughts are censored from public view. You tend to act in secrecy in matters most dear to you. Your strongest conscious aim is to secure power and control. In love you have probably chosen a partner who requires a minimum of commitment and loss of self. Here too, however, you are unfulfilled, for your individuality demands intense and complex relationships. However, you will be surrounded by friends, and you should gain by partnership or marriage.

Ascendant in Sagittarius, Jupiter in the First House

At the time of your birth the zodiacal sign of Sagittarius was ascending in the horizon. Its ruler Jupiter is located in the first house.

Sagittarius rising denotes lives which are very dualistic; situations come and go as if divided into two sides - success and failure.

If you are able to raise the interests of your mind from common and trivial things to more profound subjects, your intellect will become very philosophical and attracted by law and peace, and it will be more intuitive than rational. In any case your life will be colored by impulsive and rather stubborn tendencies on your part, creating some inclination to go to extremes.

During the course of your existence you must try to develop intuition and human understanding so that you may be in a position to assist other people with your advice.

Sagittarius gives you a rather strong love of nature and makes you somewhat extroverted, demonstrative and passionate, falling in love frequently and without reservations. You are an intellectual, an intelligent person who has been fortunate enough to be granted also a good development of the emotional functions.

Your romantic life will be intense and varied. Your object of love may find you difficult to understand. In one aspect you will appear as passionate and energetic but because of the mutability of the sign you will also have an opposite tendency that will lead you away from involvement in the love affair and the latter impulse will be caused by a more inner trait, which is personal freedom.

Generally speaking, the sign of Sagittarius will incline you to exist in environments in which your physical body, emotions and thoughts are allowed total freedom for development. On a higher intellectual level you may find yourself inclined to dwell in the deep complexities of philosophy, metaphysics, religion and law. You are versatile enough to study more than one discipline simultaneously not forgetting to keep your body in physical movement, since you require both intellectual and physical exercise.

The general meaning of this position is that any success in life will be achieved through personal effort and merit. There is also a tendency for dignity and respectability caused by your strength of temperament.

You give an impression of spontaneity, frankness, and good disposition. Your temperament is innately honest, truthful, kind and courageous.

Version B

[aukestrel.livejournal.com]

----------
for Benton Fraser (male)
born on 12 Dec 1961 local time 6:00 am
in Baker Lake, NT (CAN) U.T. 12:00
96w00, 64n15 sid. time 10:59:47

Sun in Sagittarius, Moon in Aquarius

These astrological circumstances confer upon you the gifts of intuition and genuine concern for humanity at large. You have the ability to deal with large groups, associations, and congregations. Your mental processes are logical and are influenced by a powerful imagination that takes off where others stop. You could show a flair for prophecy. Your professional pursuits should be within the spheres of higher education and mental discipline. In love you are sincere and affectionate, all the while maintaining a certain independence of habit and mind. Your emotional reactions and cues may be somewhat puzzling to your observers, for you express yourself in unconventional ways. The key to a more harmonious self lies in keeping your inherent independence from souring into reserve and obstinacy.

Ascendant in Scorpio, Mars in the Second House

At the time of your birth the zodiacal sign of Scorpio was ascending in the horizon. Its ruler Mars is located in the second house.

Your life will be marked by your shrewd, secretive, obstinate, clever, and reserved disposition. You remain an enigma: with these traits, your life events could be either very tragic or very fortunate. To which category of Scorpio do you belong? There are two types, the extremely emotional, attracted by those pathological aspects of biological relationship, or the highly mystical, concerned with spirituality.

You are a person of extremes, very sensitive and desirous of attachment. There is some attraction to the occult or to psychic phenomena. You are active in the sense that there is a psychological struggle going on inside you between the positive and negative poles-those of affirming and satisfying or rejecting and repressing. You are very intense in your feelings and remain passionately attached to the person you love. Similarly, when you dislike someone you are very fixed in that feeling. However, there is room for optimism in that: whatever type of Scorpio you may happen to be, there exists a desire deep in your inner self for psychic regeneration.

At some point in your life, after the occurrence of a major dramatic event that will affect you deeply, the goal and entire expression of your ego may alter entirely. The intensity and profundity of your passion, however, will always be constant. You have a tendency to go into the shadows and secretly plan the course of action you will take, reluctant to let others know the exact nature of your mood or feelings. In your sexual affairs you are full of passion and strong attachment.

Re: Version B

[inmyriadbits.livejournal.com]

Hmm, interesting stuff. I think I prefer Version A, personally, but of course I see your point about the different interpretations. Very cool.

How exactly does a reverse horoscope work? Do you just pick a time that produces the right sun/moon/asc. and then extrapolate from there? I'm just curious.

Re: Version B

[aukestrel.livejournal.com]

I like the part about the deep dramatic event, even if Paul Haggis was writing Fraser out of character in VS. *g* But as you say, it can work either way. And it all works with the timelines you worked out.

The easiest way to do a reverse horoscope is to identify what Ascendants and Moons you're most interested in, but yeah basically you try to pick a time, place, date etc. that provides the correct combination. Professional astrologers use a technique like this for people whose birth time (most commonly) isn't known (in history, I mean) - it's called a "corrected" or "modified" chart. Basically it's a "best guess" chart. *g* But oddly enough it often works. I cast one for my husband a long time ago and identified the most probable birth time, which no one in his family knew. Turns out his aunt knew and years later confirmed my "window"!

Ray Kowalski

[aukestrel.livejournal.com]

I don't see a Cancer Sun but you could sell me on a Cancer Moon - he *needs* love, he needs emotional attachment. But his tendency to wear his heart on his sleeve (and then take off his shirt) argues against any "secretive" signs such as Pisces, Scorpio, or Cancer. He doesn't have enough ego to be a Leo; you could sell me on a Virgo or Libra combo since he tends to be quite nonjudgmental and accepting of people's differences. I would say he's not a Taurus Sun either because he's not stubborn to the point of immovability either in emotional or intellectual ways. Could be an Aries, Cardinal Fire - he's got that energy.